CSSS Researchers publish new population projection method in PNAS

Three CSSS affiliated researchers, Jon Azose, Hana Ševčíková, and Adrian Raftery have published new research in the Proceedings of the American Academy of Sciences that for the first time incorporates uncertainty about migration streams into worldwide population projections.

Previously published population projections used similar methods for fertility and mortality but deterministic migration projections.

The new method produces prediction intervals for the populations of Northern America and Europe that are over 70% wider than under previous models, whereas prediction intervals for the populations of Africa, Asia, and the world as a whole are nearly unchanged.

Full paper citation: Jonathan J. Azose, Hana Ševčíková, and Adrian E. Raftery. Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty PNAS 2016 ; published ahead of print May 23, 2016, doi:10.1073/pnas.1606119113