Understanding and Using Forecast Uncertainty Information in the Context of Weather Related Decision Making

Although information about weather forecast uncertainty has been available for some time, it is rarely included in public forecasts. Forecast providers fear that information about forecast uncertainty is too complex and difficult to understand, especially for the general public. This talk will summarize a research program designed to answer the following questions: Can non-experts make good use of uncertainty information when making deterministic weather-related decisions? What is the best way to present such information to enhance understanding and decision-making? Results suggest that uncertainty information can be effectively communicated to non-experts as long as human information processing characteristics are taken into account.