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Inference for epidemics in progress: incorporating contact tracing information

The talk will describe a general methodology for Bayesian inference for partially observed epidemics still in progress. Our motivation comes largely from veterinary diseases such as Foot and Mouth Disease and Avian Influenza of significant economic importance within the UK (and elsewhere). Tactical response to outbreaks is, in practice, strongly informed by contact tracing information, and the presentation will describe an approach for incorporating this information into formal likelihood-based analysis.

This is joint work with Chris Jewell