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Predicting Irregular Leadership Changes in 2015

We use a split population duration model to forecast irregular leadership changes (ILCs)---unexpected leadership changes in contravention of a state's established laws and conventions---for the first 6 months of 2015 using predictions from an ensemble of seven thematic models. The data consist of monthly observations for 168 countries worldwide from 1991 to 2015, including several aggregations of event data. Earlier version of this model have correctly predicted several coups (Thailand and Burkina Faso, most recently).